Demystifying COVID-19 pandemic modelling for policymaking

Mathematical modelling is used widely to inform COVID-19 pandemic policy. Infectious diseases modelling is a long-established science used to estimate future outcomes under various conditions, that can inform policy decisions. Each model depends on assumptions made, the specific modelling methods used and the scenarios explored. Non-modellers can evaluate models using the following principles. © 2022 The Author(s).

Tailored intelligence to detect unusual epidemic activity following the explosion at Vector, Russia

We used open source data from the EpiWATCH observatory to monitor for early disease signals in Russia and surrounding countries following an explosion at a BSL 4 laboratory, Vector, in Siberia in September 2019. Upon news of the explosion at Vector on September 16th 2019, the EpiWATCH team added the Russian language and key words Russia, Siberia, Novosibirsk, and Koltsovo to the Standard Operating Procedures, in addition to the usual epidemic-specific keywords used in EpiWATCH. We also searched for outbreak reports in countries bordering Siberia, including Mongolia, Kazakhstan and China. Given local spread of an epidemic could manifest in these countries, we included searching in Chinese, Mongolian and Kazakh. We added "Ukraine” as a key word, given current conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Data collection began in September 2019, one week after the explosion, with this considered the baseline. We demonstrate a method for rapid epidemic intelligence following an incident of concern, the explosion at Vector. There were some unexplained outbreaks in Russia in the three months following the explosion. No unexplained outbreaks were detected in countries bordering Russia, nor in Ukraine in the three months following the explosion. We detected an accidental release of brucella from a laboratory in China in early December 2019 and two reports of severe pneumonia prior to official reports, which could have been early COVID-19 cases. Best practice in preparedness should include surveillance for disease events in the months following an event of concern at local, national and global levels. In the absence of official surveillance data, open source intelligence may be the only available means of detecting outbreaks and enabling early response and mitigation for the rest of the world. EpiWATCH was able to identify reports of Russian outbreaks in the weeks and months following the Vector explosion, which allowed monitoring of outbreaks of concern without a known cause. © 2020 The Author(s).

Risk mitigation of inadvertent exposure to biothreats to front line law enforcement

Awareness and concern over the occupational health and safety of first responders to biological threat and other hazardous exposures has grown. Law enforcement personnel play an important role in the response to such events and may even be the first on the scene to hazardous exposures. Front line police entering a property and expecting to find drugs and weapons may also unexpectedly find biological or chemical agents. In the case of a pandemic like COVID-19, they may be exposed to virus in their ordinary duties. We argue that the risk of exposure is increasing, and will continue to increase, driven by advances in science and biology which makes chemical and biological agents more accessible to a wide range of actors. In addition, serious epidemics of newly emerged infections are increasing in frequency. Although the level of risk to police will vary depending on the exposure, the uniformed officers at the front line may be at highest risk because of a higher likelihood of being unprotected when they encounter biothreats. Planning focuses on response to known events by well-trained and well-equipped HAZMAT (hazardous materials) teams. Better preparedness is required for unexpected exposure of front-line police. This includes expanded training and design of regular uniforms to reduce exposure, provision of personal protective equipment (PPE) kits which include disinfectant wipes, chemical wipes and biosensors. As the use of chemical and biological weapons by nefarious actors increases, these changes may become a necessity to protect the occupational health and safety of police. © 2020 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC-BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. See http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ .

Cruise ship travel and the spread of COVID-19 - Australia as a case study

Introduction: Cruise ship linked COVID-19 outbreaks have been identified as a potential source of community transmission of COVID-19 in Australia and worldwide. The risk factors and potential mitigation around COVID-19 infections on cruise ships and communities is a research gap.